Author Topic: Election 2015  (Read 22982 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline GAP

  • Semper Fi
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 129,280
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,816
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #150 on: January 10, 2012, 21:59:29 »
In watching Power Play tonight Jean Belavance brought up the point that most NDP's higher ups were hoping it was Lise St-Denis that was crossing the floor. She turned out to be a sever pain in the a$$, and they wished her on someone else, especially the Liberals or maybe the BQ
REMEMBER SOME PEOPLE ARE ALIVE SIMPLY BECAUSE IT IS ILLEGAL TO SHOOT THEM

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I´m not so sure about the universe

Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 191,175
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,358
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #151 on: January 11, 2012, 10:29:41 »
It is, in a way, rather sad that the Liberals and the NDP must fight over the remains of old, lesser Canada while the Conservatives solidify their hold on new, growing Canada. But that's what this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, says is happening:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/defection-reminds-ndp-and-liberals-its-quebec-or-bust/article2298466/
Quote
Defection reminds NDP and Liberals it’s Quebec or bust

JOHN IBBITSON

Ottawa— Globe and Mail Update
Published Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012

The Great Game is afoot in the province of Quebec.

Saint-Maurice-Champlain MP Lise St-Denis’s defection from the NDP to the Liberals on Tuesday is more than a preconvention boost for a party that needs one.

She reminds us all that, for the Liberals and NDP, the fight for Quebec is the fight that matters above all.

As Ms. St-Denis put it with unnecessary bluntness: Last May, Quebeckers did not vote for the NDP. They “voted for Jack Layton. Jack Layton is dead.”

The party’s 59 Quebec MPs are mostly young, inexperienced or both. It is an accidental caucus.

If the Official Opposition wants to remain the Official Opposition after the 2015 election, it must replace the giddy infatuation that drove Quebeckers to abandon the Bloc Québécois with something more sober and more real. Otherwise, the NDP will go back to being what it always was: an English Canadian party of social protest that attracts the support of about one Canadian in six.

For the Liberals, the stakes are equally high. Within the present political reality, they have no hope of picking up 50 seats in Ontario next time out. The suburban sprawl of Greater Toronto will remain lost to them until the province’s political fundamentals realign, which isn’t going to happen anytime soon. The prospects in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland are hardly less bleak.

The path to returning to official opposition status – the sine qua non of a Liberal revival – runs through Quebec. Tuesday was one down; 58 to go.

Unless the Bloc Québécois stages a Lazarus-like revival – and with Quebec politics, who knows? – this is strictly a Liberal/NDP fight. The Conservatives may or may not win a few extra seats in the Quebec City region next time out; they are going to unseemly lengths to unseat Irwin Cotler in his Montreal riding, and there are always hopes for a pickup in the Eastern Townships or in the national capital region.

But the Conservative coalition runs from Southern Ontario west to Vancouver Island. Prime Minister Stephen Harper long ago abandoned his dream of winning over Quebeckers by respecting their aspirations for domestic autonomy.

Loan guarantees for Lower Churchill. Putting the Royal back in the Navy and Air Force. The national securities regulator. The Senate reform bill. Does this look to you like a government determined to make gains in French Canada?

So it’s down to the two opposition parties. The New Democrats have the advantage of incumbency. The Liberals have the advantage of historical ties. Neither has a leader.

Strangely, Tuesday’s bit of floor crossing boosts the campaigns of Thomas Mulcair and Brian Topp. Talk to NDPers without a notebook in your hand, and they speak of stark fears that they will lose in 2015 everything they gained in 2011. Under the circumstances, the argument in favour of choosing a leader of and from Quebec is compelling.

And here’s a question, for those who support closer co-operation between the Liberals and the NDP: How can the two parties work together when neither can prosper without defeating the other in Quebec?

Lise St-Denis did more than just cross the floor. She woke everybody up.


The "old Canada/new Canada" (East and West of the Ottawa River) thesis is not mine (and I cannot find the article (by Michael Bliss?) from which I took the thought) nor is it uncommon. The fact, and it is a fact, is that "old Canada" (NL through to and including QC) is stagnant, Eurocentric, statist (conservative) and always in search of the "brass ring," the big project that will turn everything around. (Although, in fairness, NL might be turning away from this model.) "New Canada" (BC through to and including ON) is bustling, increasingly Asian, individualistic (liberal) and too busy making money to search for a "brass ring."

I will repeat myself: to govern Canada in the 21st century means to govern from "new Canada," and that means learning to win and to govern without Québec - not against Québec, just without very many MPs from la belle province. It also means accepting, even embracing the French Canadian nation but treating Québec as "une province, comme les autres".
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concernign Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline RangerRay

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 10,140
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 807
  • Kloshe Nanitch
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #152 on: January 11, 2012, 10:30:22 »
The NDP must be in bad shape if she jumped from Official Opposition to the third party.

"I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." - Sir Winston Churchill

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 191,175
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,358
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #153 on: January 11, 2012, 10:44:04 »
I think her main point, that Québec voted for Jack Layton, not the NDP, is valid.

If the Dippers want to hold on to some of their Québec MPs in the 2015 election they had better elect Mulcair as leader. Even with Mulcair they will lose some seats and we may see, with the new seats added, something like this:

Conservatives:        175±
Liberals:                   70±
NDP:                        63±
Other QC Party:        25±
Greens & Others:       5±
TOTAL                    338
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concernign Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Thucydides

  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 82,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,596
  • Freespeecher
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #154 on: January 12, 2012, 08:58:04 »
Preston manning on what ails the LPC, and what may happen to the CPC as well. I note that one advantage the CPC has is their intellectual "establishment" of Classical Liberal think tanks and policy groups is largely supported by private donors (like me), unlike the government funded machine Mr Manning describes. Still, complacency is a danger to be avoided at all costs:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/because-one-day-tories-youll-be-out-of-office-too/article2297893/print/

Quote
PRESTON MANNING
Because one day, Tories, you’ll be out of office too
preston manning
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012 2:00AM EST

What can the federal Conservatives, Canada’s governing party, learn from the decline of the federal Liberals from “natural governing party” to third-party status?

One lesson worth considering is this: When you’re the governing party, especially for a long time, you begin to rely more and more on the civil service and taxpayer dollars for everything – including the key elements required to keep your party vigorous, strong and relevant.

Does your party need intellectual capital – a steady stream of policy analysis and ideas? As the governing party, you can always expropriate some of it from your political opponents. But the longer you are in office, the more likely you are to get an increasing proportion of your intellectual capital from the civil service or by the use of taxpayer dollars to fund research projects and policy studies on any subject.

Does your party need trained human resources to help guide and run your political machinery as well as the government? You can get and maintain those resources by placing persons sympathetic to your partisan cause in political staff positions within the government and funded by the taxpayer. You can upgrade their knowledge and skills from time to time by sending them on courses or bringing in training consultants, again at taxpayer expense.

You can even use the civil service itself as a reservoir of potential candidates for elected office – the Liberal Party of Canada, for example, drawing two of its most prominent leaders, Mackenzie King and Lester Pearson, from the civil service.

Does your party need ever-expanding communications capacity to get out its messages? The party itself will have a small communications staff, but, if you’re the governing party, you can increasingly draw on the communications offices of 30 government departments and dozens of Crown corporations and agencies to help craft and deliver your key messages, again all at taxpayer expense.

But then, alas, the fateful day comes – as it did for the Liberal Party of Canada – when you’re no longer the governing party. No longer do you have access to the intellectual capital-generating capacities of the civil service. No longer do you have access to the human resources and training budgets of a $265-billion-a-year taxpayer-funded enterprise. No longer do you have access to the hundreds of communications personnel and vehicles that were once at your beck and call.

To make matters worse, during the long years as government, most of the alternative sources of these resources were neglected and allowed to atrophy. Thus, the Liberals now find their federal party intellectually bankrupt, lacking in the ability to attract and nourish talented people, and its once-loud voice reduced to a whimper because of drastically reduced communications capacity.

Our advice to our political friends? Build and maintain your “democratic political infrastructure” – the intellectual capital generators for politicians, the training programs for political activists, and the political communications vehicles – when in opposition but continue to build and maintain it, outside of the civil service and through private donations, even after becoming the governing party.

To fail to do so is to court eventual political collapse and impotence from which it may take years, even decades, to recover – witness the current state of the federal Liberals.

Preston Manning is president and CEO of the Manning Centre for Building Democracy.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline RangerRay

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 10,140
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 807
  • Kloshe Nanitch
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #155 on: January 17, 2012, 10:52:19 »
Mr. Harper is starting to slip in the eyes of many right-leaning British Columbians.  First by intervening in an area of provincial jurisdiction (natural resources/environment) and now by cozying up to Premier Clark and the BC Liberals, who are toxic to everyone, left and right.

Alex Tsakumis is a former advisor to Socred Premier Bill Vander Zalm and Prime Minister Mulroney.  He has been very active with the BC Social Credit, federal Conservatives, and Vancouver's free-enterprise Non-Partisan Association.

http://alexgtsakumis.com/2012/01/16/dear-prime-minister-harper-are-you-feeling-well-sir-what-the-hell-were-you-thinking-most-disappointingly-you-werent/

Quote
Dear Prime Minister Harper: Are You Feeling Well, Sir? What the Hell Were You Thinking?! Most Disappointingly, You Weren’t…



Right after I appeared on Brian Lilley’s exceptional Sun TV show just one week before the last federal election (May of 2010), I was removing my mic and fighting with the bit of make up that ended up in my eye, when a former Sun colleague listening to the interview emailed me:

“Are you sure about your prediction of a Conservative majority? There’s little chance of that, don’t you think?”

“No, they’ll have it,” I wrote. “My only concern is that, as per every single historical implosion at that level, some entirely self-absorbed ******* in the backroom, who views Einstein as a lightweight, will advise the Prime Minister to do something incredibly stupid, that will end the majority support–beginning in BC and if it happens–followed by acrimonious finger-pointing, the party will split again, I assure you. Just watch. The idiots on the far right are as stupid as those on the far left–neither can escape their own detonation radius. But I have faith in the Prime Minister, he’s a very good man. When it comes down to it, it’s his decision that’s final. Though, if he blows a few key ones, it’ll be tough to recover. The ego will get in the way, naturally, and you can forget pulling the nose up…it’ll be one huge induced swan dive…let’s see happens, anyway. But the first six months will tell the tale”

Sometimes, I hate being right.

It’s been six months exactly, if you deduct for short holidays on both ends of the fall.

The Tories, far from perfect ball, have had a fairly easy ride considering the Fiberals and the Dippers continue to shoot themselves in both sets of feet.

But I’ve noticed a disturbing trend. One which I think speaks volumes about how unfortunately prophetic the reply to my former colleague was.

Without getting into the minutiae of the Tory tenure, thus far, they’re slipping on key issues.

The marijuana legalization dunces (I know, this is redundant) have come out swinging (waving a half eaten slice of pizza). No coordinated reply from the government; no stats (ample as they are) to show how wrong these idiots are, nothing. No national drug strategy. Just what’s in a crime bill that in some parts is too hard and in others too soft. The Grits have handed them a golden opportunity with the passing of their insane legalization motion at the convention over the weekend, and NOTHING from the government that ran on protecting your families from crime. Not a peep about addiction, not a single effort to corral the dozens of addictionologists across the country clamoring for an audience the mainstream press refuse to provide.

A contradiction in how provincial independence will work. Lots of talk about regional autonomy, but little real work on that file except window dressing. A classic example is the Enbridge pipeline, which is completely wrong-headed and absolutely certain to cost the Tories seats in BC, where they can ill-afford to lose them. In fact, with the Liberals taking a decided left turn on the weekend–most appealing to La Belle Province, and the NDP holding at least half the Quebec seats they gained last May, where is the other province the Tories can make gains in? Are they annexing Michigan?

Nevermind the idiotic alarmism last week about gay marriage being revisited (it’s not and never will be)–no one consulted a lawyer but instead relied on the CBC’s extraordinary bias–and in this case, fiction. Notwithstanding the Prime Minister’s reasonable and appropriate comments on social issues, the idea that there be no party solidarity behind NOT reopening abortion or gay marriage has spawned various backbench dwelling imbeciles and their archaic brains to spout bone-chilling codswallop about when life begins and ‘gayness’ that can be “corrected” through some church in Edmonton. Honestly….

On the one key issue they ran on, the economy, their strategy–too simple by half, seems to be holding spending while praying the tax breaks they instituted will buoy our bottom line enough that we simply tread water. This is visionary? What if the United States dips again? If they develop the flu once more, we’ll have to come running with our emergency life support unit, never mind the Kleenex box. Then what? While the HST sits, nothing is moving and no plan exists to hasten the unfairness of the current circumstances. I’m hearing from staunch Conservative circles in this province that inside complaints to Ottawa are falling on deaf ears. Goodness, they sure forgot our numbers rather quickly after we secured them a majority.

But there in no greater crazy-making by the federal Tories than what I’m about to show you.

During the BC Liberal leadership race, the Prime Minister’s office asked Premier Clark’s very close pal, Mr. Boessenkool (a senior Tory stroker) and now Chief of Staff, to cool his tummy-rubbing of the dimwitted one. Federal Tory hierarchs would NOT take sides, they were told, and the Prime Minister’s closest people, past and present, were also told to forget making endorsements or providing support. No congress, of any kind, please, we’re Conservatives…

Well, what a difference almost a year makes. Ms Clark, having once again cheated to win, is now the Premier. Previously, when she was an afternoon embarrassment at CKNW radio, Mr. Clark routinely PUMMELED Stephen Harper, black and blue, and always without a stitch of reason or purpose.

Then, when she ran for the leadership, other than the smidge of cocktail conservatives that remain (I believe there are still a few left in the dupe troop), she surrounded herself with what was left of the FEDERAL LIBERAL crew Dave Basi and Bob Virk expertly put together for her, to once again win the Indo Canadian community, and the usual FEDERAL LIBERAL retreads her ex-husband, FEDERAL LIBERAL operative Mark Marissen cobbled together, to carry the day.

In the first nine months of her incumbency as Premier, Ms. Clark has gone from one monumental gaffe, where the federal Tories are concerned, to another. Be it agreed-to joint announcements that she went off and did on her own, or claiming credit for federal decisions that had nothing to do with her or her failing government or demonstrating her lack of intelligence when speaking of the Senate, Christy Clark’s been a colossal nightmare (just have a look at the tape of her deer-in-the-headlights comments today on national health matters followed by Premier Redford of Alberta and her articulate brilliance–more ignominy at the hands of the most unqualified person to ever hold public office in BC).

Not to mention Premier Clark’s  ongoing denials about how she never had anything to do with the sale of BC Rail (Chapter One: giving away Cabinet secrets to admitted bribers of public officials, who were your friends and associates, may be viewed as grounds for charges of breach of trust–but not by politically bias prosecutors or the feckless RCMP in this province).

And now that the BC Conservatives (led by a former Harper caucus member no less) are EVEN in the polls with her free-falling BC Liberals, excuse me, Christy party/government, here is how the Prime Minister of this land–a man whose whole electoral byline screamed ethics, morals, values, ideals and virtues not eight months ago, comports himself.

 

This, unbelievably, is a picture of the Prime Minister of this land, who ran on an ample platform of ethics in government, sitting next to the most spectacular phony and fraud in BC political history. They attended the weekend hockey game of Ms. Clark’s pawn, excuse me, son, Hamish Clark-Marissen. The request came from the Premier’s office and the complete morons running the show for the PM, well, I’m told most of them. agreed (although a few, are livid). If only you knew the firestorm of anger this has caused many long-time and prominent supporters of the Prime Minister in BC. An incredibly stupid move if there ever was one. The only silver lining is that it, once more, verifies what a political ***** Ms. Clark is.

And again.

Young Hamish must have saved that goal, but the real winner of the game in the stands was Ms. Clark, who managed to use the federal Tories post-election arrogance to her advantage. Of course she wants to stem her party’s bleeding by being seen as ‘a BC conservative’ since those very same people have sensibly left her corrupt party and precisely because of her and her incompetent, shameful team. Of course the idiots who advise the Prime Minister and agreed to this think anyone but the NDP in this province would be better for the feds (not smart boys, think it through again…) and of course Mr. Boessenkool, whose federal Tory work is reportedly uneven, helped concoct such a coup as getting the PM to show up sitting next to Premier Clark, for yet ANOTHER shameless photo op (these pictures were splattered across her twitter and facebook pages–TWICE).

And the Prime Minister fell for it, every bit of it, hook, line and sinker. For shame, Sir. For shame.

Corrupt is, as corrupt does. If the federal Conservative meatheads (both in downtown Vancouver and in Ottawa) that allowed for this treason, think some of us will stand idly by while they sell this province to the absolutely unethical group that has infested Victoria along with Ms. Clark, then you can count this blog as unfriendly territory if I see this nonsense happen again.

And that’s not a warning shot.

Check your bow. Not fazed? Neither was Sam Sullivan.

Or Christy Clark.

I don’t give a damn about your pipeline.

There is nothing more important that a full public inquiry into the sale of BC Rail.

The the PM doesn't want to lose seats in BC, he should stay away from Christy Clark and the BC Liberals.
"I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." - Sir Winston Churchill

Offline milnews.ca

  • Directing Staff
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 173,075
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 11,686
  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #156 on: January 17, 2012, 12:26:23 »
On the NDP front, some dual citizenship questions popping up for Mulcair....
Quote
NDP leadership hopeful Thomas Mulcair holds dual Canadian and French citizenship and vows to keep both even if he should one day become Canada's prime minister.

That would set Mulcair at odds with the man he seeks to succeed, Jack Layton. Layton, in 2006, said he thought it inappropriate that Stephane Dion hold dual French and Canadian citizenship as leader of the Liberal Party.

"I would prefer that a leader of a party hold only Canadian citizenship, because one represents many Canadians, and for me that means that it's better to remain the citizen of one country," Layton said in 2006.

And yet, none of Mulcair's opponents - either from other parties or within his own party - were prepared Monday to say they agreed with Layton.

The Liberals supported Mulcair's view as did leadership rival Nathan Cullen.

The Conservatives and every other leadership rival except for Niki Ashton refused to comment. Ashton could not be reached.

French language television network TVA reported Monday that Mulcair has been a French citizen for 20 years.

Though he was born in Ottawa, Mulcair was able to apply for and receive French citizenship because his spouse, Catherine, was born in France.

Under French law, spouses of French citizens can apply, as Mulcair did, to become citizens themselves after five years of marriage and after demonstrating their ability to speak French.

"Mr. Mulcair is very proud to share the nationality of his wife, who shares his," Mulcair spokesperson Chantale Turgeon told TVA. "He sees no conflict with his Canadian citizenship or duties. Dual citizenship is a reality for many Canadians who are proud of their origins and a source of enrichment for our diverse society."

The Mulcairs' two children are also citizens of both Canada and France.

Among other things, Mulcair's citizenship gives him the right to vote in French elections. It's not clear though if he has ever exercised that right even though his wife ran unsuccessfully in 2008 for the Assembly of French Citizens Abroad, a political body that represents French citizens outside

France. Mulcair's team was unable to say if he had voted ....
QMI/Sun Media, 17 Jan 12
Like what you see/read here at Milnet.ca?  Subscribe, and get great swag while helping keep the lights on!

"Healthy discontent is the prelude to progress."  Mahatma Gandhi

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 191,175
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,358
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #157 on: January 30, 2012, 08:50:56 »
This and this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail may well frame the 2015 election debate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/bruce-anderson/harpers-davos-speech-puts-canada-on-the-path-to-substantive-politics/article2318782/
Quote
Harper’s Davos speech puts Canada on the path to substantive politics

BRUCE ANDERSON

Globe and Mail Update
Posted on Sunday, January 29, 2012

For much of Stephen Harper’s time in office, his critics have charged that almost every move he made was calculated to win short-term electoral advantage. To some, he looked like a man without a long-term plan, the exact opposite of what they had expected.

With his speech in Davos, PMSH 2.0 has emerged. His declaration that Canada needs to overhaul its pension approach is clearly not borne of a zeal to win more votes. No, this is one of those things that – in theory anyway– people say they want politicians to do. Take a tough issue, find a solution you believe in and press ahead, make your case. The PM is putting political capital on the line for ideas he believes in. He undoubtedly knows there is more political risk than reward in what he is doing.

The substance that Mr. Harper proposes will be debated at length as details emerge; my comments are only about political communications.

Mr. Harper's overarching message was that the developed world has been living high on the hog, is out of shape and needs to go to boot camp. And not just a two-week boot camp, more like a 20-year one. The assertion that we have become complacent and take prosperity for granted may have a ring of truth for many people. They might agree that we need to improve our economic fitness. But they may be thinking about walking a bit more and eating a bit less – not about years of endurance and making do. There’s a reason why fitness infomercials spend so much time telling us that making progress will be easier than we think: it’s what makes us pick up the phone.

The Davos speech included a few passages that might make the average Canadian feel proud of what has been built in this country. But not many. There was a fair bit of “every silver lining has a dark cloud,” and Mr. Harper draws more on the fear of going over a cliff than the promise of reaching new heights. It’s often true that unless people are fearful of the consequences of doing nothing, nothing can change. But getting people to accept tough change in a democracy often requires more than explaining why not doing so will be awful. Attention spans are getting shorter, especially for bad news. Finding the right blend of worry and optimism is tricky, but essential.

In the hands of his opponents, the PM's pitch can be recast to sound like: things are pretty good in Canada, but the rest of the world has made a bunch of mistakes, and now Canadians are not going to be able to retire as early or as comfortably as they had dreamed. To say this is politically vulnerable would be an understatement. The Maginot line had a better chance of holding back its enemies.

If they are going to win this debate (not just pass a law sometime during this term), the Conservatives will likely need to paint a brighter picture of the future. Canadians may need to see the “after” shot: what our life looks like when boot camp is over. The Davos speech more or less described success as survival.

Finally, it’s risky to talk about changing pension entitlements without talking about protection and care for the most vulnerable. Many Canadians have come to expect they will be on their own when it comes to planning for their retirement. But the instinct to want to protect our poorer older citizens remains very powerful in Canada. It’s easy to imagine centre and left voters coalescing around an alternative approach that is almost as fiscally cautious, but imbued with the desire to ensure our older citizens live in dignity.

Many will take issue with lots of the ideas in Mr. Harper’s speech in Davos. But after years of wishing that Canadian politics would be about important issues, even those who disagree with him should welcome the fact that he is laying out a substantive path, with a focus on the long term, not next month’s poll. And that we are launched into a debate that will challenge our political leaders to make their best case, on subjects that matter.


I think there is some political reward is saying, "We are making the tough choices now, for your and your children's futures," but I also agree with Anderson that Harper must protect his weak flank: Canadian's inchoate desire to "protect" the old and vulnerable. I think Anderson has the right answer but for the wrong reason; the risk, I believe, is not that the left and some of the centre will coalesce around that issue - they'll do that no matter what, the risk is that Harper already equates to "hard," "uncaring," even "mean" and he needs to put forward a "soft," "caring" side to a tough programme.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concernign Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Thucydides

  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 82,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,596
  • Freespeecher
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #158 on: January 31, 2012, 21:30:35 »
While we are talking about the Federal election three years from now, it is worth thinking about how the various provinces are shaking out. While political preferences at the provincial level don't automatically translate into federal preferences (and it used to be a truism that Ontario would vote one way provincially and the opposite way federally), they do identify trends that could be used to advantage by the federal parties:

http://aprogressiveconservativesview.blogspot.com/2012/01/looking-to-2012-2013-provincial.html

Quote
Looking Forward to Provincial Politics in 2012, 2013 

In 2011 we saw that Canadians, overwhelmingly, chose to keep governing parties in power. In Yukon, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland conservative parties (ascribing to various names) were resoundingly re-elected. Federally the same was true. In Manitoba it was a very close race, by votes cast, but due to oddities in the first-past the post system the NDP was re-elected with a strong majority. In Ontario voters settled on a re-elected Liberal minority government. That was the 2011 election cycle. It was exciting for me and reassuring. All of the provinces that elected conservative parties seem to be settling on a consensus that free-market policies are undoubtedly the way forward for Canadians. Nationally, one hopes, we are coming towards this consensus as well. Manitoba and Ontario both look ripe for political change in their next round of elections, which is likely to benefit conservative parties and the well-being of the provinces themselves. What of the provinces that are set to vote in the next two years? Here I think things get quite exciting too.

In Quebec the CAQ presents an exciting new alternative to the old sovereignist-federalist battle lines and, perhaps more importantly, is soundly based in free-market, entrepreneurial policy that is sure to benefit the province and our country. We already saw a huge shakeup in Quebec politics with the federal election and witnessed the destruction of the Bloc Québécios. We can only hope the CAQ can deliver a death-blow to soverignty in Quebec by giving the Parti Québécios a terrible showing. The Liberals there have done a respectable job of managing the economy but are elected largely because of the bi-polar nature of Quebec politics (the result of the sovereignty debate). This results in voters feeling forced into voting one of two ways and settling on a party that is increasingly shrouded in controversy and scandal. The Liberals have lost their right to govern but free-market oriented voters as well as federalists, until recently, only had one feasible option. Political observers will be watching this one intently.

In Alberta, it seems, the groundwork is laid for another historic shakeup. Alberta has been governed by four political parties, in succession, since its beginning. First by the Liberals, then by the United Farmers, followed by the Social Credit for 36 years and the Progressive Conservatives (PC) for 41 years. Historically, each party governs with very little opposition until the next 'dynasty' emerges and overtakes the old one. Many observers, including myself, feel Alberta has reached this critical juncture. The PC's have shifted to the left of the political spectrum as Alberta, and Canada, shifts to the right. It has left them more open to attack on the right which is exactly where the Wildrose Party exists. Alberta came to a consensus centered around modern conservatism over seventy years ago and when the dynastic party moves away from it, naturally, another dynasty will come in to fill the void. It seems quite likely that the Wildrose Party will win the Alberta provincial election this year.

In British Columbia we have, perhaps, the most unpredictable set of circumstances. This is primarily because in Alberta and Quebec a great amount of realignment has already occurred while in BC, the realignment I'm both advocating for and predicting hasn't entirely taken shape yet. BC, along with Quebec, is a very bi-polar province politically. The province is largely separated into two camps: free-market advocates and their allies and proponents of command economy models (represented by the unions and the NDP). The province has been characterized by this two-party system since the early 40s when the NDPs emergent popularity made necessary a 'merging' of the political center-right. When the Social Credit party collapsed at the start of the 90s, and without an appropriate party to pick up the center-right banner, the NDP entered into the decade of destruction, during which it was able to turn BC into a have-not province. In a decade of economic prosperity across the western world, BC was brought into a decade of economic stagnation. Roughly half of this province never has and never will vote for the NDP. More than that, presumably, understand the economic record of NDP governments in this province; anytime they've come into power we've gone into a period of stagnation or decline. At the same time the BC Liberals are losing the approval of a great number of those voters who won't vote NDP. The reasons for this are multiple and I plan on blogging on it more in the future.

Enter the BC Conservatives. They are looking increasingly capable of governing this province. Their base is still small; the fear that many British Columbians have of another NDP government is so strong that many feel bound to the BC Liberals. I recently escaped from my self-inflicted captivity in the BC Liberals to join the BC Conservatives. The situation of so many supporters feeling hostage to the increasingly misguided and liberal BC Liberals is not healthy for democracy. My hope is that the BC Conservatives are able to position themselves as filling the increasing void on the center-right left by the drifting and tired BC Liberals.

Canada's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest provinces are set to offer up some major political shake ups. It also seems quite likely that two powerful Liberal parties are likely to face the same fate as their federal counterparts. The cause of which, in all three cases, seems to be the overwhelming sense of entitlement, lack of ethics, and disregard for citizen input on the part of Liberal parties across the country.  I feel trends point to a crisis within Liberal ideology and the Liberal vision for Canada.  The trends also point to a shifting of the political center in the country that clearly benefits conservative parties and governments.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline ModlrMike

    : It's riding time again!

  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 124,364
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,628
    • Canadian Association of Physician Assistants
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #159 on: February 01, 2012, 07:23:37 »
Pretty good article, but to be fair Ontario and Manitoba were more lost rather than won. Both suffered from lack luster Conservative campaigns with predictable results. It will be interesting to see where AB, QC and BC go this year.
WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher,smarter, faster and better looking than most people.
If you're surrounded by clowns do you go for the juggler?
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats. (H.L. Mencken 1919)
#37 | Rank: 273 | Cbt Exp: 20,640,154 | Msns: 2,650

Offline GAP

  • Semper Fi
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 129,280
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,816
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #160 on: February 01, 2012, 07:32:19 »
As far as Mb goes, the NDP won because the Cons totally blew it....what a sad performance.

It would seem Ont. was in the same situation from what I read.............
REMEMBER SOME PEOPLE ARE ALIVE SIMPLY BECAUSE IT IS ILLEGAL TO SHOOT THEM

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I´m not so sure about the universe

Never take life seriously. Nobody gets out alive anyway.

Offline RangerRay

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 10,140
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 807
  • Kloshe Nanitch
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #161 on: February 01, 2012, 12:10:31 »
BC is a dogs breakfast at the moment.  The free enterprise coalition that was the BC Liberals has pretty much imploded, and the NDP grown beyond their traditional ~40%.  If Christy Clark can't stop the bleeding and rebuild the coalition (which I doubt she could) we are looking at an NDP government.  It's tough to say whether it would be a majority, or a minority with the BC Conservatives (which hasn't elected an MLA since the 1970's) holding the balance of power.
"I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." - Sir Winston Churchill

Offline Thucydides

  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 82,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,596
  • Freespeecher
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #162 on: February 01, 2012, 23:34:34 »
The PCPO most certainly lost the last election, partly because they could not seem to comprehend the opposition was not the Liberals but the Public Service Unions through the "Working Families" front organization.

While I am sure to get the usual deamonization for pointing this out, Civil Service unions get a much better deal overall than the taxpayer in terms of virtually every metric, from wages to pay increases to benefits and pensions. Dalton McGuinty has been paying the Danegeld ever since he achieved office, and you know the people who benefit from this will be fighting to the last taxpayer to keep their perques.

We have seen the test shots being fired WRT the trimming and reorganization of the government in the Government Re-org and trimming thread, expect more of the same and a powerful push by "Working Families" type groups as we get closer to the election.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline RangerRay

  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • 10,140
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 807
  • Kloshe Nanitch
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #163 on: February 02, 2012, 09:23:23 »
Correction to my last...

...and the NDP has not grown beyond their traditional ~40%...

"I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." - Sir Winston Churchill

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 191,175
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,358
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #164 on: February 04, 2012, 12:49:20 »
The implications of this report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, go far beyond the 2015 Election:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/stephen-harpers-census/article2326375
Quote
Stephen Harper's census

JOE FRIESEN

From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Feb. 04, 2012

Stephen Harper owes his success in no small part to his mastery of demographics, having tailored his election platform to winning enough seats in key pockets of Ontario and elsewhere to achieve a majority.

Now, the renowned tactician has turned his attention to a grand vision, a once-in-a-generation kind of reform that would change how we save for retirement, whom we admit to the country and how we orient our economic policy.

Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, last week, Mr. Harper said Canada's aging population threatens our cherished social programs. He thrust obscure stats such as the old-age-dependency ratio to centre stage, promised to overhaul our immigration system and strongly hinted at raising the age of eligibility for old-age security.

These are transformative changes, the kind that can't be executed without a good deal of persuasion. The Prime Minister will get some ammunition on Wednesday. That's when the first results of the 2011 census are released. Every census is used for political purposes, but this one will be the most significant in a generation. It will be the evidence Mr. Harper relies on to advance an austerity agenda.

Mr. Harper has indicated that he wants to cut now to prepare for the coming bulge of baby boomers, the first of whom are now turning 65, and whose number and influence will be reflected in upcoming census releases. He will argue that they pose a threat to Canada's financial security, and their appetite for the pensions and health care they have been promised certainly will prove expensive.

The census will also help Mr. Harper as he seeks to push closer links with Asia. In his Davos speech, he promised to explore other markets for oil after the Keystone pipeline setback, as well as free trade with India. He visits China next week. The westward momentum of the population and its growing human ties to Asia through immigration will create further impetus for Canada's Pacific reorientation.

The question is whether Mr. Harper can address these national challenges while holding together the hard-won coalition he built into a majority government. After finally persuading enough of Atlantic Canada and Ontario to join his western-based Conservative Party, he could alienate voters in those provinces by turning a deaf ear to local concerns. Atlantic Canada is aging and Ontario's share of immigration is tumbling. A failure to deal with either of those could have major economic consequences.

At the same time, the aging of the population is tearing at the national compact. The Constitution promises “reasonably comparable levels of public services at reasonably comparable levels of taxation.”

It's hard to imagine that will be the case in provinces whose horizons differ as much as Alberta and Nova Scotia.

The first volley in this battle was launched last month over health care. The most forceful objection to the Prime Minister's new deal on health transfer payments – a straight 6-per-cent increase based on population – came from British Columbia. Premier Christy Clark argued that B.C. and Atlantic Canada would suffer if the funding formula did not compensate provinces, like B.C., that have a higher proportion of old people. Meanwhile, Alberta, which has Canada's youngest population, would be nearly $1-billion a year richer under the new formula.

The straightforward per-capita grant fits with Mr. Harper's view of a decentralized Canada, where the federal government doles out money and the provinces decide how to use it. The Prime Minister is a bit of a puzzle in this: The same man who told an audience in Switzerland that demographics threaten our social programs was apparently unable to see the sense in a more detailed demographic argument from Victoria.

Gone west

The census will show that population growth in Canada is shifting westward to the resource-rich economies, as it usually does when oil prices are high. Increasingly, that trend seems permanent. In 2010, nearly every city in the West grew at a rate above the national average, while only nine of the 25 cities from Ontario east could claim the same. And while every province worries about the costs of an aging population, some provinces are older than others. To compound their problems, the oldest provinces also tend to be the worst off.

The cleavage runs more or less along the Ontario-Manitoba boundary. In the West, Alberta is a behemoth. It has the highest proportion of people of working age and the lowest proportion of seniors. With a little more than 10 per cent of Canada's population, it contributes more than 16 per cent to the national gross domestic product. Its median age is the lowest in the country. Once mocked for its parochialism, it now attracts one in 10 immigrants to the country.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan are home to some of the country's fastest-growing communities. Winnipeg's share of immigrants soared by 88 per cent from 2006 to 2011, compared with the 2001-06 period. Saskatoon and Regina exploded with immigration growth of 180 per cent and 162 per cent, respectively, in that time. The delivery rooms of local hospitals are also proportionally busier than in the rest of Canada, since the highest birth rates are on the Prairies. Saskatchewan, long a net loser of population, will probably trail only Alberta in population growth this time.

Atlantic Canada, conversely, is by far Canada's oldest region. Despite some recent immigration gains, the median age is three to four years older than the rest of the country. That bodes ill. All four provinces have median ages well into the 40s, above the national average, with Newfoundland the highest at 43.8.

The future

Consider for a moment what the federation might look like in 20 years when the baby boomers have all turned 65. Somewhere between a quarter and a third of Atlantic Canada will be over 65. The preponderance of white hair on the street will be slightly surreal. There will be about two people of working age to support each retiree. Health-care costs will devour provincial budgets. Nursing homes will be the new fishery. That also has consequences for the younger generation – older voters are less likely to demand investments in education and innovation. Their horizons tend to be shorter.

Meanwhile, Ontario, for so long the linchpin of economic growth in Confederation, is showing signs of decline. It has lost more than 300,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000 and watched its share of the national immigration pie drop to nearly 40 per cent from 60 per cent in just five years. About two-thirds of Canadian population growth is due to immigration, the other third to births (the reverse is true for the U.S.), which is why Ontario has for years been one of the fastest-growing provinces. Those immigrants, typically younger and better educated than the rest of the Canadian population, contributed to the province's growth and were a sign of its prosperity. Now, Ontario might actually see its rate of population growth drop below the national average, a symbolic threshold.

Quebec has also suffered economically and for years welcomed less than its proportional share of newcomers. As it continues to grow more slowly than other parts of Canada, its relative influence in Confederation dwindles, fuelling its existential angst. The sovereigntist movement might be quiet for now, but will it be in 10 years?

Keeping these regional interests from boiling over will be Mr. Harper's challenge. His first test came from the premiers on health care. In that case, his vision demanded that every province be treated the same. The danger of that philosophy is it could make them more different than ever.

Joe Friesen is The Globe and Mail's demographics reporter.


THE big challenge for Prime Minister Harper, indeed for Canada, is to "fix" Ontario ~ it constitutes more than 1/3 of the country's population (actually 38%) but only 37% of Canada's GDP, down from 39% in 2005. Given that "old Canada," Canada East of the Ottawa River is unlikely to ever be a net contributor to the national commonwealth it is essential that "new Canada," (BC, AB, SK, MB and ON) are, in aggregate, always producing more than their 'fair share' to help support the weaker sisters.

THE big challenge for Ontario is to recover from the huge losses in the manufacturing sector over the past 20 years. During my lifetime we saw the manufacturing sector grow from a low skill/low wage proposition into a low skill/high wage thing and then start to collapse. It is unlikely that:

1. Ontario can, ever again, be a low skill/high wage manufacturing hub - but it can have some low skill/low wage manufacturing and more high skill/high wage manufacturing; or

2. Ontario can, nearly alone, "carry" the national economy, as it did for 50 years from 1950 to 2000.

The entire country needs to shed its "culture of entitlement," a holdover from the socio-economic idiocy of the Trudeau era, and regain its frugal, self reliant spirit - which was nearly wrung out of us by the pain of Great Depression combined with the drought of the "dirty thirties" and the giddy growth after World War II. We translated the best elements of a "cooperative" culture into an unsustainable "culture of entitlement" and, simultaneously, we denigrated the virtues of hard work, thrift and self reliance. These are social and attitudinal matters more than they are policy or political issues.

It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concernign Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Kirkhill

  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 45,820
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,636
  • Just plain difficult
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #165 on: February 04, 2012, 14:38:43 »
When I came over to Canada (Peterborough) in 1966 I can remember our Grade 6 teacher making comment on the Autopact recently signed by Pearson and Johnson (1965).  Since then I have laboured under the apprehension that Ontario's "prosperity" was the result of a political construct rather than any "natural" advantage.  Coincidentally that change seems to have occurred concurrently with the closing of all the lumber mills and hard rock mines in Northern Ontario (ie from Peterborough to Kenora).

In 1965 the US could afford to be generous with jobs. Ontario got a hand up from the Yanks (for which she has been eternally grateful  :sarcasm:).  Now the Yanks want and need those jobs back (and we need them to have them back so they can afford once again to buy "stuff" from us). Ontario is going to have to find something else to sell to them. What does Ontario have that they can't provide themselves?
« Last Edit: February 04, 2012, 15:47:46 by Kirkhill »
Over, Under, Around or Through.
Anticipating the triumph of Thomas Reid.

Offline Thucydides

  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 82,240
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,596
  • Freespeecher
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #166 on: February 04, 2012, 14:39:54 »
Thereality is Ontario is badly damaged, and only a pretty drastic policy turnaround can change the reality of these numbers. Whoever takes over will be in a far worse position than when Mike Harris picked up the pieces from Bob Rae:

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/McGuinty+syndrome/6101585/story.html

Quote
The McGuinty syndrome

National Post · Feb. 4, 2012 | Last Updated: Feb. 4, 2012 5:15 AM ET

Ontario voters and taxpayers can be forgiven if they've awakened to the sense that they've been badly duped.

During October's provincial election campaign, they were repeatedly told that the province faces five years of deficits, but that Liberal Finance Minister Dwight Duncan has a plan to eliminate it, and that Premier Dalton McGuinty was determined to make the "tough decisions" to make that plan a success.

On Thursday they learned that the situation was far worse than the government let on. A new report from the Conference Board of Canada suggests the chances of Ontario balancing its books by 2016-17 as promised are slim to none. Only by projecting unrealistic levels of growth could Messrs. Duncan and McGuinty make that claim, the Conference Board says. The reality is that growth is likely to be much slower, and for an extended period of time, due to the aging population, a slowing manufacturing sector and a shaky U.S. economy.

As reported in the National Post on Friday, the Conference Board says it's unlikely the budget will be balanced before 2021-22 - i.e. a full decade from now - even if we make the questionable assumption that the Ontario government will stick to an aggressive campaign of spending-reduction. To balance the books by 2017, program spending growth would have to be limited to 0.7% a year, this from a government that has increased spending by more than 6% a year every year since it came to power. Even if growth in health and education spending is limited to increases caused by inflation, demographic changes and population increases, Ontario won't achieve a balanced budget by 2031. The alternative is regular tax increases (perhaps even a doubling of the provincial share of the HST) and cuts to health care.

Anyone familiar with the McGuinty government knows it is not likely to admit to any of this. Since it first came to power eight years ago, its modus operandi has been to ignore its promises, backtrack on pledges, cancel ill-advised initiatives and hide the evidence of programs gone wrong. When it's warned that there's trouble ahead, it forges on anyway until disaster itself forces a halt. When proof of its bumbling emerges despite its best efforts, Mr. McGuinty shrugs, offers a few sunny platitudes and vows that he's determined to put it right, because it's never too late to make the right decision.

It's a pattern Mr. McGuinty has stuck to through thick and thin. Unable to meet a vow to hold the line on public sector contracts, the government engaged in voodoo accounting to keep the truth from public view. Warned that an ill-advised foray into private enterprise at its air ambulance service was heading for trouble, the province plowed ahead nonetheless until newspaper revelations forced a sharp retreat and an embarrassing rash of firings.

Even Mr. McGuinty's approach to solving his deficit dilemma reflects his extreme reluctance to face up to problems. With the shortfalls piling up, the Premier appointed economist Don Drummond to assess the situation and propose solutions. Mr. Drummond's findings are due soon, but regular leaks and interviews with the author have made clear that proposals will include sweeping changes to the way the province operates, including a wholesale revamping of health care. The Premier, who has seen the report, is now using it as a foil to protect himself from a backlash when the full details are released.

Observers have noted that the shield represented by the Drummond report is good news for Ontarians, because it might give the Premier the courage to take the steps it contains (which Mr. Drummond has acknowledged will be unpopular). While true, that in itself is a sad statement on the future Ontarians face and the nature of Mr. McGuinty's leadership. Only when he's driven the economy to the point of ruin can the Premier bring himself to acknowledge the situation and take some steps to remedy it, and only because a third-party report compiled by a former federal civil servant spells out in unflinching detail just how awful Liberal rule has been for the province's finances.

Don't expect a show of regret from Mr. McGuinty, though. Even after eight years, and with four more ahead of him, the Premier is not one to accept responsibility for anything negative that's happened in that period. This is a government that inherited a deficit of $5-billion, has tripled it in eight years and insists it's all the fault of other people and other countries. We'll get the firm brow, the look of determination and another display of the McGuinty command of platitudes. Because it's never too late to make the right decision.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline milnews.ca

  • Directing Staff
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 173,075
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 11,686
  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
By-election coming in Jack Layton's riding
« Reply #167 on: February 06, 2012, 09:54:50 »
Quote
Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced today that a by-election will be held on March 12, 2012 in the riding of Toronto-Danforth (Ontario).
PMO Info-machine, 5 Feb 12
Like what you see/read here at Milnet.ca?  Subscribe, and get great swag while helping keep the lights on!

"Healthy discontent is the prelude to progress."  Mahatma Gandhi

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 191,175
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,358
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #168 on: February 07, 2012, 11:58:47 »
This, the topic of this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, might be a "sleeper" issue that, finally, unites busybody social conservatives with more traditional Tory fiscal conservatives:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/does-the-state-have-a-role-in-promoting-married-family-life/article2329065/
Quote
Does the state have a role in promoting married family life?

JOHN IBBITSON

Globe and Mail Update
Published Tuesday, Feb. 07, 2012

Statistics Canada will reveal the state of our nation, Wednesday, by releasing the first results from the 2011 census, focusing on population trends. There are those who believe the numbers will prove our country is committing demographic suicide.

The Institute of Marriage and Family Canada – it will not shock you to hear they are socially conservative – released an internationally co-authored report Monday arguing for urgent government action to promote larger families and two-parent households.

Actually, Bradford Wilcox, a University of Virginia sociologist who co-authored the study, expects to see Statscan report a slight uptick in Canada’s birthrate.

But two facts remain: First, our underfunded pension schemes and skyrocketing health-care costs stem in part from the simple fact that, sometime around 1970, Canadians stopped having the necessary 2.1 children per woman needed to sustain the population.

Second, an increasing number of children are raised in single-parent environments, which places them at greater risk of poverty, poor nutrition and inadequate education.

“Although there are always exceptions ... most scientists who study these questions would say that the stable two-parent family is better than the alternative,” Prof. Wilcox observes.

For the authors of The Sustainable Demographic Dividend, government tax policies should encourage couples to have children; child care subsidies should allow women to balance work and parenting in whatever way most suits them; government advertising campaigns should promote the advantages of married family life (the authors cite studies showing married couples are more likely to stay together than those who cohabit), just as previous campaigns warned against cigarette smoking or driving while impaired.

The Harper government hears this message, which is why it prefers direct child care grants to parents rather than subsidies for daycare centres, and is promising income-splitting for families with children once the budget is balanced. (This will allow parents to pool their income for tax purposes.) Many of these policies infuriate those who have fought for women’s equality. But in terms of pure social utility, the family-values crowd has a point.

The decision by couples across the developed world to have fewer children was, for decades, a social blessing. It gave women the freedom to work, it increased family income, and it allowed parents and governments to lavish resources on those children who were around, leading to improved education and productivity.

But we’re paying a price for all those children who weren’t born, because today they’re not working and paying taxes and contributing to pension plans. They’re not buying houses and cars and sofas. They aren’t inventing anything or starting up new businesses or writing songs. They are a generation of potential, lost.

Canada has covered part of the gap through immigration. But we would have to take in many times the 250,000 or so people who come here every year to fully replace the missing children.

For many people, it’s worth delaying retirement and paying more for health care in exchange for the social revolution that a declining birth rate made possible.

Yes, growing up in a stable household with a mother and father committed to each other is the best world for a child. But being able to have and raise a child outside marriage, or on your own completely, or in a gay relationship, without being branded by an intolerant community is just as important. Security matters, but so does diversity.

But balance matters, too. Why should government policies favour working parents over those where one chooses to stay home to focus on the children? Why shouldn’t parents have the flexibility and freedom to choose the child care they prefer?

Though the idea of a government advertising campaign promoting married families still feels deeply weird.


First, a principle: religion is a wholly private matter in which the state has no interest; it is a matter between you and your god(s); it is enough that you ring your bells, blow your horns and call the faithful tpo prayer in public - we, the people, have no interest in your views and neither you nor your popes, priests and other assorted shamans nor your gods have any political right to impose your views on us; but

Second, a bit of pragmatism: this sentence from Ibbitson's article is demonstrably true - "an increasing number of children are raised in single-parent environments, which places them at greater risk of poverty, poor nutrition and inadequate education."

As a matter of good public policy we should be outraged by the "single parent" problem. But, let us be clear: we are not talking about marriage; the issue is that young men and women who make babies have a responsibility to raise their children in such as way as to maximize the children's opportunities for social and economic success in our modern world. Those involved in the welfare business can comment on this better than I, but the data (Canadian and American) is clear and persuasive, if not, sometimes, shocking. We must, as a matter of public policy, stop creating and sustaining an underclass.

The first way to make fewer single families is to make abortion more easily available and to counsel children on how to get one.

The second way to make fewer single families is to require fathers (and maybe grandparents)  :o  to assume responsibility for their children - much, much easier said than done, I am sure.

A potential third way is to cut off welfare payments - to force young women and their babies out on to the streets, to sink/starve or swim without public support. Maybe young women will learn that the best birth control pill is an aspirin clutched firmly between the knees.

A fourth way is to remove children from underperforming families and raise them in kibbutz like communal centres.

It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concernign Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline milnews.ca

  • Directing Staff
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 173,075
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 11,686
  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #169 on: February 07, 2012, 12:18:11 »
.... The second way to make fewer single families is to require fathers (and maybe grandparents)  :o  to assume responsibility for their children - much, much easier said than done, I am sure.

A potential third way is to cut off welfare payments - to force young women and their babies out on to the streets, to sink/starve or swim without public support. Maybe young women will learn that the best birth control pill is an aspirin clutched firmly between the knees ....
So, if you can't get the fathers to do their duty, we throw the moms & kids to the wolves?
Like what you see/read here at Milnet.ca?  Subscribe, and get great swag while helping keep the lights on!

"Healthy discontent is the prelude to progress."  Mahatma Gandhi

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 191,175
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 10,358
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #170 on: February 07, 2012, 12:27:19 »
So, if you can't get the fathers to do their duty, we throw the moms & kids to the wolves?


It's a bit cold, I admit, but I have heard of "welfare families" where three single mothers (that means four generations!) live together and the oldest, the new great grandmother, is not yet 60! If that's true then whatever we are doing now isn't working.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concernign Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline ballz

  • Milnet.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 56,074
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,244
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #171 on: February 07, 2012, 13:07:09 »
I've stated my arguments for it before, but since the problems it would help *solve* are being brought up, I'll state what I think the solution is, and that's national childcare.

You can cut an awful lot of that social assistance going to a single mother if her kids are being looked after for her during the work day. You wouldn't be throwing the child to the wolves, since you could socialize it, educate it, even feed it one good meal during the day. You wouldn't even be throwing the mother to the wolves, you'd be forcing her to choose between the wolves and a full-time job.

This would also prevent having to "remove children from underperforming families and raise them in kibbutz like communal centres," which usually doesn't do a whole lot of good for the child's quality of life.
Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification, but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.
- Helen Keller
#14 | Rank: 491 | Cbt Exp: 119,266,733 | Msns: 4,819

Offline dapaterson

  • Milnet.ca Subscriber
  • Milnet.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 126,915
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,921
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #172 on: February 07, 2012, 13:22:20 »
The problem is that "available national childcare" quickly becomes "mandatory national childcare".  And that is a massive intrusion into people's private lives, with great potential for misuse and abuse - on the physical and moral planes.



Photo of North Korean children, from the World Health Organization

This posting made in accordance with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, section 2(b):
Everyone has the following fundamental freedoms: freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication
http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/charter/1.html

Offline milnews.ca

  • Directing Staff
  • Milnet.ca Legend
  • *
  • 173,075
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 11,686
  • Info Curator, Baker & Food Slut
    • MILNEWS.ca-Military News for Canadians
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #173 on: February 07, 2012, 13:31:15 »
It's a bit cold, I admit, but I have heard of "welfare families" where three single mothers (that means four generations!) live together and the oldest, the new great grandmother, is not yet 60! If that's true then whatever we are doing now isn't working.
Perhaps, but it's a bit of an unbalanced incentive scheme there.  Young dads do nothing to support their kids?  Nothing happens to them.  Young moms can't get dads to do anything?  Out you go.  Someone more left-of-centre than I could suggest that this makes it look like it's the young mom's fault, given she faces the harsher punishment than the other half.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2012, 13:38:25 by milnews.ca »
Like what you see/read here at Milnet.ca?  Subscribe, and get great swag while helping keep the lights on!

"Healthy discontent is the prelude to progress."  Mahatma Gandhi

Tony Prudori
MILNEWS.ca - Twitter

Offline ballz

  • Milnet.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 56,074
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,244
Re: Election 2015
« Reply #174 on: February 07, 2012, 13:33:12 »
The problem is that "available national childcare" quickly becomes "mandatory national childcare".  And that is a massive intrusion into people's private lives, with great potential for misuse and abuse - on the physical and moral planes.

Kind of like public schools from Kindergarden to Grade 12?

It would never become "mandatory," it would just make better financial sense for almost everybody to use it, and posting a picture of kids in North Korea is not going to scare me into thinking that it would be anything like that in Canada ::)
Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification, but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.
- Helen Keller
#14 | Rank: 491 | Cbt Exp: 119,266,733 | Msns: 4,819